Final Thoughts: Week 11

Best Ball Update

• Best Ball Portfolio: 183 advancing teams. 22.7% (+3.9% vs baseline)

• Best Ball Mania: 29 advancing teams. 19.3% (+2.6% vs baseline)

• Vulnerability Index: 0.56 (9 teams on the cusp, 5 teams vulnerable)

• Best Case Scenario: 51 teams advance (-8 from last week)

• Worst Case Scenario: 19 teams advance (no change from last week)

• Quartile teams

  • Top 25% = 28%

  • Top 50% = 55.3%

  • Top 75% = 80.7%

  • Bottom 25% = 19.3%

It was a meh week 10, as I lost 8 teams from my best case scenario, and my vulnerability index increased to 0.56. Still, with the two of my stronger team bets failing (Cowboys on bye, Packers laying an egg), and Brock Bowers, Josh Downs, and Jaylin Noel not posting any usable scores, the week was a relative success. I’m still advancing more teams than baseline, and that is more likely to increase than decrease the rest of the way. My overall portfolio advance rate even increased, and I’m not +3.9% over baseline, and with some room to grow (-0.8% from my expected rate).

For week 11, I’m most excited for the Cowboys-Raiders on SNF, as a shootout between those two teams would probably be a strong boost to my advance rate, and they have the highest combined total on the week (49.5). The Colts are one of my last substantive team bets to go on bye, but with only an average amount of Jonathan Taylor, that could actually be sneaky good for my advance rate. Excited to see where this week lands me, and even more excited knowing playoff best ball is right around the corner.

Injury Considerations for Week 11

One added injury note this week is that Titans star defensive tackle Jeffrey Simmons is expected to play. Simmons is DT1 in pass rush win rate and pass rush grade, and is a true difference maker.

QBs:

• Jaxson Dart - out

• C.J. Stroud - out

• Jayden Daniels - out

RBs:

• Bucky Irving - out

• Isiah Pacheco - out

• Rhamondre Stevenson - out

WRs:

• Quentin Johnston - questionable (90% to play)

• Davante Adams - questionable (90% to play)

• Drake London - questionable (80% to play)

• Calvin Ridley - questionable (80% to play)

• Matthew Golden - questionable (50% to play)

• Brian Thomas Jr - questionable (20% to play)

• Marvin Harrison Jr - out

• Darius Slayton - out

• Garrett Wilson - out

• Chris Godwin - out

• Brandon Aiyuk - out

• Terry McLaurin - out

TEs:

• Sam Laporta - out

• Dalton Kincaid - out

Weather Considerations

As you might have guessed, I am not a meteorologist. However, there are some occasions where weather impacts my start/sit decisions, or DFS considerations. My process for accounting for this to usually look at Kevin Roth’s analysis here, and via NFLweather.com, before breaking it down into a watch vs warning methodology to get a quick handle on it.

Weather Watch - monitoring, but no knock to projection

• Chiefs at Broncos: 12% chance of rain

• Lions at Eagles: 14mph wind, 43 degrees

Weather Warning - small knock to projection

• Packers at Giants: 16mph wind, 25% chance of rain, 46 degrees

• Bengals at Steelers: 19mph wind, 47 degrees

• Bucs at Bills: 20mph wind, 55% chance of snow showers, 36 degrees

• Ravens at Browns: 25mph wind, 51% chance of rain, 43 degrees

My Start/Sit Decisions

In this section, I’ll provide the tougher start/sit decisions I’m making, and why I’m doing it. I’ll also keep a running count on these over the course of the year. My goal for these start/sit decisions is to be 50% or better, as most of these are coinflips (or worse) in projections. For tracking purposes, I use 5 points as the difference between correct, neutral, and wrong.

Season Tracker: 24 correct, 19 neutral, 13 wrong - 65%

• Weeks 1-5: 11 correct, 12 neutral, 4 wrong - 73%

• Weeks 6-10: 13 correct, 7 neutral, 9 wrong - 59%

Week 11 Start/Sits

Geno Smith > Jordan Love

The Packers have a slightly higher total (25.25 vs 23), but the Raiders play in a dome and are likely to be chasing the Cowboys, evening out the projections. Given some concern of bad weather for the Packers (windy/cold/rainy), I’m breaking a tie in favor of Geno, who is averaging 16.8 points when Brock Bowers plays, vs 7.4 with Bowers out. Love is at 19.4 for the season, but will be without multiple pass-catchers again this week, including star tight end Tucker Kraft.

Deebo Samuel > David Montgomery

Neither has been at their best this year, with a few strong weeks interspersed among bench-level performances. However, Samuel is now multiple weeks removed from a nagging heel injury that caused him to miss week 7. The loss of Jayden Daniels is concerning, but with Terry McLaurin out again, Samuel will probably earn strong volume in a decent matchup. Conversely, Montgomery and the Lions are road underdogs, in a game that is likely to be slow and run-heavy.

Tee Higgins and Zay Flowers > Tetairoa McMillan

All three players are projected within 1 point of each other, but I’m electing to bench McMillan, as the Panthers will enter with yet another run heavy gameplan, limiting his upside. As for Higgins and Flowers, there are real weather concerns for each, but with strong schematic matchups to offset them. In a matchup where I’m facing Puka Nacua, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and James Cook, I want to play for the upside.

Rachaad White > Kimani Vidal

White has the better projection (in PPR) and matchup, but Vidal probably has the better role. Tough call here, but with Ladd McConkey and the Chargers defense in my lineup, I’m going with White, as it would not surprise me if the Jaguars won this game. If that wasn’t the case, I would probably lean Vidal, as the Chargers are favored and have the stronger total.

Dak Prescott > Lamar Jackson

Weather concerns, an elite Browns defense, and some lingering injury questions for Lamar shift me towards Dak this week. The Cowboys actually have the higher total (26.25 vs 23.25), and given the dome matchup vs the Raiders, have less questions. I’m currently at 64% to win in this matchup, so I plan to go with the floor of Dak. However, if my win percentage falls, I will have the opportunity to swap, as Lamar doesn’t play until the afternoon, and Dak is on Monday Night Football.

Parker Washington > Luther Burden and Jaylin Noel

The projections are certainly on Washington’s side in this one, but Noel and Burden are both extremely talented rookies whose roles should grow down the stretch. The Vikings are tough on wide receivers, but Burden’s zone-beating and YAC ability is a combination that can give this Vikings secondary fits, and he’s on my radar for DFS. Noel only ran roughly 1/3 of the routes last week, but Christian Kirk’s role has fallen (about 45% of the routes), and Noel is so talented that rational coaching can’t keep him from a 60%+ role much longer. All of this is to say, I’m sticking with the projection play here, but I’m looking to roster Burden and Noel in as many leagues as possible.

DFS Decisions

The Chalk

Quarterback

• Jacoby Brissett 15%

• J.J. McCarthy 15%

Running Back

• Jaylen Warren 30%

• Chase Brown 30%

• Christian McCaffrey 25%

• Josh Jacobs 15%

• Bijan Robinson 15%

• Rico Dowdle 15%

• R.J. Harvey 15%

• Woody Marks 15%

• Aaron Jones 15%

Wide Receiver

• Ja’marr Chase 30%

• Michael Wilson 20%

• JSN 18%

• Puka Nacua 18%

• Justin Jefferson 15%

• Wan’dale Robinson 15%

• Rashee Rice 15%

Tight End

• Trey McBride 35%

• George Kittle 15%

• Oronde Gadsden 15%

Defense

• Titans 15%

• Texans 10%

• Packers 10%

• Chargers 10%

My Player Pool